2025 Oklahoma Predictions on the HG

May 12

May 12 2025 Oklahoma Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

Brent Venables and his Oklahoma Sooners will be looking to improve on their lackluster first season in the SEC. They seemingly looked doomed when their QB transferred, but the Sooners did not miss a beat and picked an even better QB out of the portal. John Mateer transferred to Oklahoma after throwing 3,139 yards and 29 TDs and rushing for 826 yards and 15 more TDs with Washington State.

John Mateer and the offense will have plenty of support as there are stars all over the Sooner defense. Star DLs R Mason Thomas and Gracen Halton both combined for 53 tackles, 18.5 TFLs, and 14 sacks in 2024. The Sooners also have a young up and coming LB, Kip Lewis, who had 65 tackles, 4TFLs, and 2 INTs (returning both for TDs) in 2024.

What’s not to like:

The Oklahoma Sooners biggest problem heading into the 2025 season is that they have lost a large number of players to the portal and draft. Danny Stutsman (LB) and Billy Bowman Jr. (S) were both drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft. In 2024, Stutsman and Bowman combined for 163 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, and 2 INTs.

The Sooners lost two WRs to the portal with J.J. Hester and Nic Anderson. J.J Hester will be headed to Kentucky after a solid season and Nic Anderson will be headed to LSU after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. The Sooners will also be losing their TE and leading receiver, Bauer Sharp, as he also will be transferring to LSU.

What does the Hourglass say?

Oklahoma- SEC (9-3)

Power ranking 115.1. The 3rd toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Oklahoma Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #17- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Billy Napier- 56th in Power 5 and 12th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 4 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Brent Venables is ranked as one of the lower tier coaches in the Power 5.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 95th

Defensive Ranking: 10th

Quarterback Play: Mateer- ranked 2nd in the Power 4, 1st in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 27.2 (Power 4 average- 14.41).

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Oklahoma has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Sooners at middle of the pack for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Oklahoma ATS in 2024: 6-7

Oklahoma at home: 4-3

Oklahoma on the road: 2-2

Oklahoma neutral site: 0-2

Final thoughts:

The Oklahoma Sooners, despite losing a lot of firepower, still have a great roster and they have a solid shot at disrupting the SEC. If John Mateer can find his stride in this new system, the offense will be one of the best in the nation. Also, Brent Venables will always have a great defense and that is not changing in 2025. Expect massive improvements this season from the Oklahoma Sooners.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.