2025 Auburn Predictions on the HG

Apr 28

Apr 28 2025 Auburn Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

Head Coach Hugh Freeze and the Auburn Tigers biggest trouble last season was having to flip flop between QBs trying to find their guy. The Tigers hit the portal and landed a great starting QB with Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. Arnold with the Sooners threw for 1,421 yards and 12 TDs while rushing for another 444 yards and 3 TDs.

Along with great portal pickups, The Tigers also have some great talents returning in 2025. The Tigers have two freshmen WRs, Cam Coleman and Malcom Simmons, coming back this season after combining for 1,049 receiving yards and 11 TDs. On the other side of the ball the Tigers will have returning DBs Kayin Lee and Kaleb Harris, LB Demarcus Riddick, and DL Keldrick Faulk. These 4 combined for 150 tackles, 10 sacks, and 2 INTs.

What’s not to like:

A big thing that the Auburn Tigers do not like right now is the NFL Draft. The Tigers lost a great WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who had 981 receiving yards and 8 TDs. While they have great young guys, it is tough to replace that type of output.

Auburn also lost their unbelievably talented LB Jalen McLeod. McLeod in 2025 racked up 57 tackles, 8 sacks, 13.5 TFLs, and 2 FFs. While Jalen McLeod is getting ready for the NFL, Head Coach Hugh Freeze will be looking for a guy to attempt to put up these types of numbers.

What does the Hourglass say?

Auburn- SEC (9-3)

Power ranking 112.92. The 13th toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Auburn Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #6- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Hugh Freeze- 21st in Power 5 and 7th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 11 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Hugh Freeze is ranked middle of the pack for coaches in the Power 5.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 254h

Defensive Ranking: 33rd

Quarterback Play: Arnold- ranked 30th in the Power 4, 8th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 13.4 (Power 4 average- 14.41).

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Auburn has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 4. This puts the Tigers at the upper tier for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Auburn ATS in 2024: 6-6

Auburn at home: 4-4

Auburn on the road: 2-2

Auburn neutral site: 0-0

Final Thoughts:

The Auburn Tigers will need a bounce back year in 2025 if they want to get back into the conversation of one of the best in the SEC. Hugh Freeze will have his hands full with 2 young WRs and a transfer QB who are hungry for some wins. If Hugh Freeze can get his pack of Tigers on the same page and hunting for the same goal, expect big things for this Auburn team.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.