2024 Notre Dame Predictions on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Spencer Winans Contributing
What’s to like:
If incoming transfer QB Riley Leonard comes back fully healthy, which he is expected to, he has the potential to be one of the best QBs in the country next season. He played extremely well in his time at Duke with less talent.
Coach Marcus has consistently improved as a coach in his 2 full seasons as head coach. After losing his first game as the interim coach, Freeman won 9 games for the Irish in 2022, followed by 10 wins in 2023.
Retained key players like TE Mitchell Evans, who was 1st in 2023 team receptions and 2nd in yards, WR Jordan Faiser, who was 4th in reception yards as a freshman, and S Xavier Watts, who led the team in INT last season.
Has one of the easiest schedules among playoff caliber teams, the Irish has 6 home games and 2 neutral site games, allowing them to only play 4 on the road this season.
What’s not to like:
Lost key pieces like WRs Chris Tyree and Rico Flores Jr. to the transfer portal, and last year’s leading rusher Audric Estime to the NFL Draft.
Their independence could finally hurt them. The new system automatically gives 5 spots to conference winners, meaning Notre Dame is competing for one of 7 spots rather than 12. Plus, they cannot receive a first round bye, as those go to the top 4 conference winners.
With no clear number one pass-catcher, Leonard will have to find his most reliable target in a hurry after fully recovering from ankle surgery.
What does the Hourglass say?
2024 Notre Dame – Independents (11-1)
Four-year analytic percentage of Notre Dame = 92 percent
2024 Notre Dame Analytics
National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 9th - Inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking: Marcus Freeman - 27th in the country; 2024 coaching value= 9 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Marcus Freeman has maintained the tradition of averaging around double digit wins. But can he show that is capable of leading the Irish to the first expanded playoff?
ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:
Offensive Rank: 10th
Defensive Rank: 10th
Quarterback Play: Riley Leonard - ranked 14th in the Power 4 / 2024 QB value=21.9. Well above the 2023 Power 4 average (14.78)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Notre Dame has a 3 on a scale of 1-5. They have talent in the WR room, but nothing that jumps off the page.
From Vegas:
Notre Dame ATS in 2023: 9-3-1
Notre Dame at home: 4-1-1
Notre Dame on the road: 3-2-0
Notre Dame at neutral site: 2-0-0
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Notre Dame is constantly in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. Since the CFP’s creation, Notre Dame is one of just eight teams to feature more than once. But, the Irish are 0-2 in those appearances, and, truthfully, they never really had a shot in either game.
With an expanded playoff, it almost seems like a given that the Irish would feature in 2025 in some way. But, the question is, will it even matter? The Irish have made very little impact on the CFP thus far, and the HG has them hosting and losing a playoff game to Tennessee. Can they prove the doubters wrong and make some noise, solidifying Freeman as the coach of the future?
2024 Schedule Analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
