2024 Tennessee Projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Spencer Winans Contributing
What’s to like:
Tennessee retained Josh Heupel, one of the top coaches in the country. His wide split, tempo, balanced offensive attack has been very successful in Knoxville during his tenure.
This will be the first year with former #1 QB in the country Nico Iamaleava under center. He has played well in his limited action with a TD every 22.5 attempts, a 62% completion percentage, and a career 135.5 QBR.
Tennessee also kept last year’s leading receiver Squirrel White as he returns for his junior season.
What’s not to like:
This will be the third different QB in three seasons at Tennessee. This is not uncommon for college football, but last year’s QB change led to a slight dip in production. Joe Milton III had extremely big shoes to fill after the year Hendon Hooker had in 2022.
They started off SEC play slow last year with a loss to rival Florida and then lost to Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia all in convincing fashion.
Lost Jaylen Wright as he entered the NFL Draft. Wright was a thousand yard rusher in 2023 and was a great compliment to Joe Milton III as it was easier for him to settle in.
What does the Hourglass say?
2024 Tennessee – SEC (10-2)
Four-year analytic percentage of Tennessee = 88 percent
2024 Tennessee Analytics
National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 15th - just inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking: Josh Heupel - 13th in the country, 6th in SEC; 2024 coaching value= 14 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Josh Heupel has moved from above average coach to a great one since his move to Tennessee in 2021.
ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:
Offensive Rank: 23rd
Defensive Rank: 21st
Quarterback Play: Nico Iamaleava - ranked 28th in the Power 4, 7th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=13.9. Just below the 2023 Power 4 average (14.78)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Tennessee has a 0 on a scale of 1-5, lacking a serious threat on the outside.
From Vegas:
Tennessee ATS in 2023: 7-6-0
Tennessee at home: 4-3-0
Tennessee on the road: 1-3-0
Tennessee at neutral site: 2-0-0
FINAL THOUGHTS:
With the talk of the conference being Georgia and Texas with OIe Miss and Alabama following behind, it is a very real possibility that the Volunteers could go under the radar with a relatively easy schedule.
They will dodge Texas and Ole Miss and get to host Alabama. They also have a Kentucky team that is trending down, a Mississippi State that will be establishing a new identity in 2024, and a Florida team which is one of the biggest question marks in the conference. If Tennessee can find a reliable pass catcher, don’t be surprised to see the Vols slide into the 9-12 area in the CFP poll and make the first playoff appearance in program history.
2024 Schedule Analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
