2024 Clemson Predictions on the HG

Mar 27

Mar 27 2024 Clemson Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Spencer Winans Contributing

What’s to like:

The Tigers are in arguably the weakest of the Power 4 conferences.

Dabo Swinney is still your head coach and he has proven in the past that he knows what it takes to turn a program into champions.

Cade Klubnik will likely take another step as he has improved in each of the last 2 seasons at QB.

Last year’s leading rusher Phil Mafah decided to return for his senior season.

Your defense was uncharacteristically one of the best in the nation last year and has the potential to career that over.

What’s not to like:

Teams like Miami and Florida State’s stocks have been rising while yours has been falling. The ACC is no longer yours to walk through.

You do not have a clear receiving threat as no receiver had more than 531 receiving yards last season.

You lost three-year starter Will Shipley as he declared for the NFL Draft. The full load will be on Mafah unless another back emerges in 2024.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Clemson – ACC (10-2)

Four-year analytic percentage of Clemson = 89 percent

2024 Clemson Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 23rd - Inside the boundary of a Realistic College Football Playoff Bust.

National Coaching Ranking: Dabo Swinney - 14th in the country; 2024 coaching value= 14 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Dabo Swinney has been one of the most successful coaches of the last decade, but as ACC competition has caught up to the Tigers, Swinney finds himself with more to prove than he’s had in a long time.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 69th

Defensive Rank: 2nd

Quarterback Play: Cade Klubnik - ranked 29th in the Power 4; 9th in ACC / 2024 QB value=13.8. Just below the 2023 Power 4 average (14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Clemson has a 0 on a scale of 1-5. They do not have a clear weapon for Klubnik to throw to

From Vegas:

Clemson ATS in 2023: 6-7-0

Clemson at home: 4-3-0

Clemson on the road: 2-3-0

Clemson at neutral site: 0-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

As long as Dabo Swinney is the head coach, the Tigers will always be contenders in the ACC. That is assuming they remain there, of course. They have plenty of starters returning on both sides of the ball. Klubnik and Mafah seem to be a good pairing in the backfield, and your defense was great last year. So because of all of that, they will definitely be a contender for the automatic bid.

But what about the at-large bid? Well, the lack of a clear receiving threat is a concern. In the past when Clemson has been successful, they relied on quality quarterback play, like from Watson and Lawrence, paired with great receivers, like from Renfrow and Higgins. A tandem of that nature has been the core to multiple national championship appearances. Without that, it’s tough to say how good the Tigers will be. With 10 wins this season predicted by the HG, Clemson should be right around a fringe playoff team.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.