2024 Arkansas Predictions on the HG

Apr 10

Apr 10 2024 Arkansas Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Spencer Winans Contributing

What’s to like:

The Razorbacks did a good job of keeping players happy. They retained last year’s leading tackler Jaheim Thomas. They also kept last year’s lead reception and yards leader Andrew Armstrong.

Armstrong is just the tip of the iceberg as the Razorbacks have a top 10 receiver room according to the Impact Ball Catcher Metric

Arkansas has done a great job recruiting in the last few seasons. In the uber competitive SEC, The Razorbacks have accrued the 20th best 3-year recruiting ranking.

What’s not to like:

Arkansas lost the big guy KJ Jefferson. He has been the face of the program for years and was last year’s leading passer and rusher. Replacing him will be no easy task for Coach

Sam Pittman has not brought much to the Razorbacks in his tenure. Currently ranked with a -1 coaching rating on the HG. This is a make or break year for the head man and he’ll be doing it with an inexperienced QB.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Arkansas – SEC (3-9)

Four-year analytic percentage of Arkansas = 88 percent

2024 Arkansas Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 20th - inside the boundary of a CFB Playoff Bust.

National Coaching Ranking: Sam Pittman - 65th in the country, 13th in SEC; 2024 coaching value= 18 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Sam Pittman ranks below the national average.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 97th

Defensive Rank: 41st

Quarterback Play: Jacolby Criswell- ranked 68th in the Power 5, 16th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=3.5. Well below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Arkansas has a 7 on a scale of 1-10, actually has one of the better receiver rooms in the country.

From Vegas:

Arkansas ATS in 2023: 5-7-0

Arkansas at home: 1-6-0

Arkansas on the road: 4-0-0

Arkansas at neutral site: 0-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Arkansas could be in trouble in 2024. The Razorbacks dawn a gauntlet of a schedule and could be in for a long season. They could surprise with a good receiving core and improving defense.

But, with an inexperienced arm, Pittman at the helm, and six games in a row to open up the season, it’s unlikely that the Razorbacks will be competitive in this season. Good luck Razorback fans, it could be a long season.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.