2019 Ole Miss football projections on the HG
What’s to like
Things have to start with the two coordinator hires that Matt Luke made in the offseason. There is talent on the roster, though some spots are much younger and thinner than others. So, with new hires, and thus a new direction, on both sides of the ball the hope that lies buried beneath the talent has a chance to shine.
Then there’s Scottie Phillips, who almost rushed passed the thousand-yard mark in 2018, despite injury keeping him out of more than a game and a half. He is the piece Rich Rodriguez’s new run-heavy spread will have to feature, at least early on.
It does look like now the Rebels will get the services of five star running back Jerrion Ealy who arrived on campus, and that will give the Rebs a one, two punch like they haven’t had in a number of years at running back.
Defensively, the Rebels should be better than expected, with many faces back at all three levels, plus a new 3-4 scheme to boot. The offense is still talented at receiver, though the new faces of the nWo are hardly recognizable even to the polished recruiting buff. And quarterback Matt Corral brings the chance that his personality could bleed into the fabric of this team if he has enough success.
What to be concerned about
There’s plenty to be said here. For starters, the offensive line will be replacing starters at left tackle, left guard and center. That position will have to be nearly completely rebuilt, all while a young offense finds its footing.
The defense faced a collection of injuries last season, which led to overly-poor results. But that side of the ball is still full of guys that have to step up and show they can play, despite having many familiar faces back.
What the HourGlass says
According to HourGlass projections, it could be a long year for the Rebels. Like Houston Nutt-era long. The HG says the Rebels will finish 3-9, with just one SEC victory, good enough for last in the SEC West.
HG analytics pick: 3-9, missing a bowl.
2018 Analytics Pick 6-6; Actual Record 5-7 (92 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 6-6; Actual Record 6-6 (100 percent accuracy)
Two-year analytic percentage on Ole Miss = 96 percent
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking: 32nd – outside our Realistic College Football Playoff talent line on our talent index. Meaning they do not have enough talent to make the Playoff.
National Coaching Rank for Matt Luke on HG Scale: 115th (Matt Luke Stamp at-5) – Average coaching value for 2019 set at 5.5.
Returning Ole Miss quarterback play rated 59th in the country out of 130 teams. Average quarterback stamp nationally for 201 is 9.5. Ole Miss has a quarterback metric value of 1.7.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
Ole Miss ranks 60th in the country in our 2019 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 20th in the country and defensively 101st in the country.
NOTE: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com