2019 Southern MIss football projections on the HG
What’s to like
We aren’t big on returning starters, but you have to like the quality Southern Miss brings back, starting with quarterback Jack Abraham. Abaraham – who is now a junior completed 73 percent of his passes a year ago, but needs to cut down on the interceptions.
The Golden Eagles return the one two punch in the backfield in Trivenskey Mosley and Steven Anderson and together, they both averaged almost five yards per carry. All top receivers return for the Golden Eagles as well, making this offense that scored 26 points per game a year ago, even better for 2019.
USM also returns a big part of the 2018 defense that held opponents to 20 points per game. Jay Hopson teams are going to play good defense, and this unit returns 13 of 14 interceptions from a year ago.
What to be concerned about
Finishing – the Golden Eagles had a hard time finishing games in close losses last year to LA – Monroe, Auburn, Charlotte and UAB. The Golden Eagles could have easily been an eight- or nine-win team last year but just couldn’t seal the deal. The Eagles will again be in several one position games in 2019 and for Hopson’s crew to compete in November for the division title, they have to close games when they have the chance.
The Golden Eagles also have to get better on fourth down on defense where they gave up a staggering 75 percent of fourth down tries from their opponents.
For this offense it would also help if they were a little more efficient on third down, where they only converted 35 percent of third down tries a year ago.
What the HourGlass says
The analytics say that Southern Miss should be back bowling in 2019, and finish 8-4, finishing second in the division behind North Texas. The offense needs to be a little more consistent and defense get off the field on crucial situations and this team could find itself in the conference championship.
2019 HG analytics pick: 8-4, back in a bowl.
2018 Analytics Pick 7-5; Actual Record 6-5 (92 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 7-5; Actual Record 7-5 (100 percent accuracy)
Two-year analytic percentage on Southern Miss = 96 percent
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking 79th – outside our Realistic College Football Playoff talent line on our talent index.
National Coaching Rank for Jay Hopson on HG Scale: 45th (Hopson Stamp at 5) – Average coaching value for 2019 set at 5.5.
Returning Southern Miss quarterback play rated 60th in the country out of 130 teams. Average quarterback stamp nationally for 2019 is 9.5. USM has a quarterback metric value of 7.3.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
USM ranks 82nd in the country in our 2019 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 115th in the country and defensively 40th in the country.