2019 USC Analytics on the HG
The Good, the Bad, the Ugly:
Regina Gray contributing:
The USC Trojans are coming back from the worst season since 2000 when Paul Hackett was head coach. These two football seasons were identical with both of them ending 5-7.
Current Head Coach Clay Helton could be fighting for his job during the 2019 season. Even though Helton has a Rose Bowl and a Pac-12 title win over the past few years his career is still shaky. With the Trojans having a tough schedule early and have lost a top recruit due to Kliff Kingsburg leaving it will be hard work for Coach Helton.
USC will be facing Fresno State in the first game of the regular season and it will definitely be a tester for the struggling Trojans who are looking to get back to their old ways. Both teams have the talent but this game will come down to who has the better coach. Jeff Tedford or Clay Helton with Tedford looking like the winner of the two so far.
With week two of their schedule kicking off, the Trojans will be starting off conference play against their longtime rival the Stanford Cardinals. As of right now Stanford has a 3-2 edge over Clay Helton’s USC football team. While it looks like the cardinals are in the driver seat, an upset in the Coliseum isn’t out of the question.
With BYU coming off of a seven game winning streak the Trojans are going to have to find a way around their defense in order to have a chance. With both teams still trying to find their true identity at the quarterback position USC may have a chance.
In week 4 and 5 the schedule doesn’t look to get any easier. Having to play a Utah team who finished strong last year, and a Washington team who will be ranked in the top 25. They will be on bye during week 6 before the team will have to bring the heat when Notre Dame hits the field. If the Trojans aren’t on their A-game it won’t be a pretty game to watch for the USC fans.
With one of the toughest starting schedules and the possibility of three or four early losses, a change in coaching staff may come sooner than one might think.
On the bright side of things, USC fans can expect to see all their underclassman back on the playing field coming into 2019. This was the first year since 2003 the Trojans went without players declaring early for the Draft.
Graham Harrell will be the Offensive Coordinator in the 2019 season, and the starters are looking to be QB JT Daniels, RB Stephan Carr which if he stays healthy could be the best on the team. Tyler Vaughns WR, and Michael Pittman WR who holds the lead in receiving yards for the 2018 season. The Trojans seem to be creating a base offense with four Wide Receivers in play with Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown being thrown in the mix.
On the other hand, the defensive-side of the balls foundation is in question. Jordan Iosefa and back-up Kanai Mauga are moving inside, and bigger players are replacing them which seems to be making everyone worry.
USC has a lot of work to do if they want to get be what they once were and a win in the Pac-12 doesn’t look likely in the upcoming season.
USC will go 6-6, no championship, no bowl game.
HG analytics pick 2019: 7-5, mid-tier bowl.
2018 Analytics Pick 10-2; Actual Record 5-7 (50 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 12-0; Actual Record 5-7 (41 percent accuracy)
Two-year analytic percentage on USC = 45 percent
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking: 5th – inside our Realistic College Football Playoff Championship talent line on our talent index. This means they have a roster worthy of championship status.
National Coaching Rank for Clay Helton on HG Scale: 57th (Clay Helton Stamp at3) – Average coaching value for 2019 set at 5.5.
Returning USC quarterback play rated 62nd in the country out of 130 teams. Average quarterback stamp nationally for 2019 is 9.5. USC has a quarterback metric value of 6.7.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
USC ranks 30th in the country in our 2019 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 41st in the country and defensively 34th in the country.
NOTE: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com