2019 LSU football projections on the HG
What’s to like
You have to like the continuity LSU brings to the table in 2019. That starts at the top. We all enjoy being entertained at Ed Orgeron’s expense, but his coordinator hires have been better than solid, and more importantly, sustainable. Dave Arranda has plenty of veterans on his defense that should be as good as any in the league, while Steve Ensminger has his QB1 back and the kind of athletes that would make any offensive coordinator blush surrounding him.
Joe Burrow led the Tigers to 10 wins in 2018, and totaled over 3,200 total yards. What he lacks in high-end talent, he sort of made up for in toughness and dependability. Pair that with a matured Clyde Edwards-Helaire and an all-of-a-sudden talent-rich backfield following the 2019 recruiting haul, and things are looking good so far. Look out wide, and the Tigers are just as rich when it comes to pass catchers. Burrow will be made even better by the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall, Stephen Sullivan, Jonathan Giles and others.
Defensively, Arranda is still one of the best in the business, and with his continual upgrade in talent since arriving from Wisconsin, look for him to keep getting better. Grant Delpit is one of college football’s brightest returning playmakers, and the likes of Rashard Lawrence, K’Lavon Chaisson, Breiden Fehoko and others make up one nasty front. To top it off, there’s speed to burn and athleticism in bunches in the secondary.
What to be concerned about
If there’s one thing to be concerned about, it would have to be edge protection. On top of it all, the offensive line is still breaking in some of the faces that will make up the depth of the unit this fall. In the big games, Burrow will need that extra second to fire balls downfield in big situations. That leads me to my next concern.
Even if the offensive line makes the next step, if Burrow the type of quarterback that can beat the elite teams this season and unlock the potential the fan base demands of this talented roster and coaching staff? (yes, talented, it has Dave Arranda)
And despite Delpit being in place, and Kristian Fulton and Derek Stingley running things on the edge, you never feel good about replacing a cornerback like Greedy Williams.
What the HourGlass says
The analytics say that LSU is really the only team in the SEC West that will have a chance to stop the Bama train this season (despite TAMU having a higher HG stamp). However, a close early-season loss to Texas and a November loss to the Tide leaves the Tigers second in the west and headed for a matchup against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl.
Extra note: LSU is projected well in close games this season with three wins (Florida, Auburn, TAMU) and just the one close-game loss to Texas.
2019 HG analytics pick: 10-2, New Year’s Six Day Bowl.
2018 Analytics Pick 5-7; Actual Record 10-2 (42 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 10-2; Actual Record 9-3 (92 percent accuracy)
Two-year analytic percentage on LSU = 63 percent
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking 7th – inside our Realistic College Football Playoff Championship talent line on our talent index. This means they have a roster worthy of championship status.
National Coaching Rank for Ed Orgeron on HG Scale: 26th (Orgeron Stamp at 10) – Average coaching value for 2019 set at 5.5.
Returning LSU quarterback play rated 24th in the country out of 130 teams. Average quarterback stamp nationally for 2019 is 9.5. LSU has a quarterback metric value of 16.7.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
LSU ranks 8th in the country in our 2019 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 16th in the country and defensively 15th in the country.
NOTE: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com