2026 TCU Football Preview
Jake Wimberly
Abby Boyd Contributing-
What’s to like:
TCU enters the season with plenty of experience in the secondary. Having veteran defensive backs gives the Horned Frogs a group that should be able to communicate effectively and limit some of the explosive passing plays that have hurt them in the past. That experience should be valuable against the Big 12's pass-heavy offenses.
TCU has also continued to add talent through recruiting and the transfer portal. The Horned Frogs have enough athleticism throughout the roster to compete with the conference's better teams, and that talent gives them a higher ceiling if they can put everything together consistently.
What’s not to like:
TCU needs to become more consistent against the run. The Horned Frogs have enough talent in the secondary to defend the passing game, but allowing opponents to consistently run the football can create problems for the entire defense. Improving up front would make the secondary even more effective.
Turnovers on offense are another concern. Giving the ball away can erase otherwise productive drives and put the defense in difficult situations. If TCU can protect the football and avoid giving opponents extra possessions, the offense should have a better chance to stay consistent throughout the season.
What does the Hourglass say?
TCU- Big 12 (9-3)
Power ranking 61.56.
2026 TCU Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #28- outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Sonny Dykes- 36th in Power 5 and 5th in the Big 12.
2026 coaching value= 19.9 (average 2026 Power 5 coaching value=21.93) Sonny Dykes is ranked lower of the pack for coaches in the Power 5.
Quarterback Play: Jadan Craig- ranked 41st in the Power 4, 9th in the Big 12; 2026 QB value=29.2 (Power 4 average- 26.43).
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: TCU has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of . This puts the Hornfrogs at the lower tier for the Big 12 in this metric.
Final Thoughts:
TCU has plenty of experience in its secondary, which should help the Horned Frogs against the conference's passing attacks. The defense still needs to improve against the run, while the offense has to do a better job protecting the football. If TCU can limit turnovers and become more balanced defensively, it has enough talent to compete near the top of the Big 12.
2026 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
8/29/26 North Carolina- Win
9/12/26 Grambling State- Win
9/19/26 Arkansas State- Win
9/26/26 At UCF- Win
10/3/26 BYU- Win
10/17/26 At Baylor- Win
10/24/26 West Virginia- Win
10/31/26 Kansas- Win
11/6/26 At Arizona- Win
11/14/26 Kansas State- Loss
11/21/26 Utah- Loss
11/26/26 At Texas Tech- Loss
