2026 Baylor Football Preview
Jake Wimberly
Abby Boyd Contributing-
What’s to like:
Baylor should have a passing game capable of putting pressure on opposing defenses. The Bears have enough talent on the outside to create opportunities through the air, and that should give the offense a reliable way to move the ball when the running game isn't working. If the passing attack remains consistent, Baylor should be able to keep pace in what could be another competitive Big 12 season.
The Bears also have improved their overall roster through recruiting and the transfer portal. That added talent gives Baylor more depth and competition at several positions, something the program has needed as it works toward becoming more consistent. Quarterback D.J. Lagway is another reason for optimism, as his talent gives the offense a higher ceiling and someone capable of making difficult plays.
What’s not to like:
Baylor still needs to create more turnovers on defense. The Bears can play solid football for stretches, but failing to generate extra possessions puts more pressure on the offense to execute consistently. A few additional takeaways could make a significant difference in close conference games.
The offensive line is another area that needs to improve. Better protection would give Lagway more time to operate and allow Baylor to develop a more balanced offense. If the line struggles against the better defensive fronts in the Big 12, it could limit what the offense is capable of doing.
What does the Hourglass say?
Baylor- Big 12 (9-3)
Power ranking 46.75.
2026 Baylor Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #40- outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Dave Aranda- 49th in Power 5 and 11th in the Big 12.
2026 coaching value= 14.3 (average 2026 Power 5 coaching value=21.93) Dave Aranda is ranked lower of the pack for coaches in the Power 5.
Quarterback Play: DJ Lagway- ranked 17th in the Power 4, 4th in the Big 12; 2026 QB value= 40.9 (Power 4 average- 26.43).
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Baylor has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of . This puts the Bears at the lower tier for the Big 12 in this metric.
Final Thoughts:
Baylor has enough talent on offense to be a difficult team to defend, particularly through the passing game. D.J. Lagway gives the Bears another reason for optimism at quarterback, but the defense needs to create more turnovers and the offensive line has to become more reliable. There are enough pieces for Baylor to have a solid season if those areas improve.
2026 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
9/5/26 At Auburn- Loss
9/12/26 Prairie View- Win
9/19/26 Louisiana Tech- Win
9/26/26 Colorado- Win
10/3/26 At Arizona State- Win
10/17/26 TCU- Loss
10/24/26 At Kansas- Win
10/30/26 At UCF- Win
11/7/26 Iowa State- Win
11/14/26 At BYU- Win
11/21/26 Texas Tech- Loss
11/28/26 At Houston- Win
