2026 Florida Football Preview
Jake Wimberly
Abby Boyd contributing
What’s to like:
Florida enters 2026 with a sense of optimism despite the transition at head coach. The Gators hired Jon Sumrall after his successful stint at Tulane, where he established himself as one of the rising stars in coaching. Sumrall has built a reputation for himself for quickly turning program into winners. The roster also received significant boosts throughout the transfer portal, brining in several key contributors to address weaknesses across the roster.
The biggest returning star is running back Jadan Baugh. As a freshman, Baugh showed he has what it takes to be one of the SEC’s premier backs, combining power, vision, and explosiveness. He has the potential to become the centerpiece of Florida’s offense. If the transfer portal additions make an immediate impact the Gators could be a more competitive team under Sumrall.
What’s not to like:
The biggest concern for Florida is the uncertainty at quarterback. Following DJ Lagway’s departure, the Gators enter summer camp without a proven answer at the position, leaving plenty of questions about what the offense will look like when the season begins. Quarterback play often determines a team’s ceiling, and until a starter emerges it will be difficult to project consistent success.
There is also a challenge that comes with coaching transition. While Sumrall’s track record suggests he is capable of building a winner, success is rarely immediate, especially in the SEC. New systems, expectations, and a roster that is adjusting can create growing pains. Florida’s schedule offers little room for mistakes, and if the quarterback situation remains unsettled or the team struggles to adapt early, the Gators could find themselves facing an uphill battle.
What does the Hourglass say?
Florida- SEC (4-8)
Power ranking 101.62. 8th toughest schedule in the SEC.
2026 Florida Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #26- outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Jon Sumrall- 25th in Power 5 and 10th in the SEC.
2026 coaching value= 25.1 (average 2026 Power 5 coaching value=21.93) Jon Sumrall ranks middle of the pack for coaches in college football.
Quarterback Play: Aaron Philo- ranked 47th in the Power 4, 13th in the SEC; 2026 QB value= 14.57 (Power 4 average- 26.43)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Florida has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Gators at the middle tier of the SEC in this metric.
Final Thoughts:
Head coach Jon Sumrall begins his first season at Florida looking to build the Gators back into SEC contenders. The roster received a boost through the transfer portal, and running back Jadan Baugh gives the offense an exciting player to build around. While there are still some questions at quarterback and the program adjusts to a new coaching staff, Florida has enough talent to be a competitive team in 2026 if it comes together quickly.
2026 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
9/5/26 Florida Atlantic- Win
9/12/26 Campbell- Win
9/19/26 At Auburn- Loss
9/26/26 Ole Miss- Loss
10/3/26 At Missouri- Loss
10/10/26 South Carolina- Loss
10/17/26 At Texas- Loss
10/31/26 At Georgia- Loss
11/7/26 Oklahoma- Loss
11/14/26 At Kentucky- Win
11/21/26 Vanderbilt- Win
11/28/26 At Florida State- Loss
