2025 Kentucky Predictions on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ross Gaskin Contributing:
What’s to like:
After a disappointing season, Head Coach Mark Stoops and his Wildcats needed a bunch of help, and they did a decent job at getting some. With the departure of their QB, Coach Stoops got QB Zach Calzada from Incarnate Word after a season where he threw for 3,744 yards and 35 TDs. However, Coach Stoops did not stop at just a QB.
Kentucky was able to add a few solid weapons for the offense to help out QB Zach Calzada out of the portal. These guys include Nebraska’s Dante Dowdell (RB) and Oklahoma’s J.J. Hester (WR). Dowdell was Nebraska’s leading rusher in 2024, and J.J. Hester was Oklahoma’s 2nd leading receiver in 2024. Kentucky also got a few pieces to fill out their defense as well.
What’s not to like:
There is plenty to not like about the Kentucky Wildcats headed into the 2025 season as they have lost almost all of their key contributors from last season. They have lost their QB, a few RBs, a few OLs, and their best WRs. In fact, Kentucky will only have 2 returning starters on their offense, but they will thankfully have 10 returning starters on their defense.
Another thing that is going against the Wildcats for the 2025 season, is that their 2024 offensive efficiency was ranked 86th and defensive efficiency was ranked 42nd. Head Coach Mark Stoops and his Wildcats will have their work cut out for them if they want to improve on their numbers from last season and improve on their 4-8 2024 record.
What does the Hourglass say?
Kentucky- SEC (4-8)
Power ranking 89.84. 8th toughest schedule in the SEC.
2025 Kentucky Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #24- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Mark Stoops- 36th in Power 5 and 10th in the SEC.
2024 coaching value= 7 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Mark Stoops ranks middle of the pack for coaches in college football.
ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:
Offensive Ranking: 86th
Defensive Ranking: 42nd
Quarterback Play: Calzada- ranked 66th in the Power 4, 16th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 5.5 (Power 4 average- 14.41)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Kentucky has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 2. This puts the Wildcats at the lower tier of the SEC in this metric.
From Vegas:
Kentucky ATS in 2024: 7-5
Kentucky at home: 4-4
Kentucky on the road: 3-1
Kentucky neutral site: 0-0
Final Thoughts:
The Kentucky Wildcats are in a rough patch right now, and it could be awhile for them to come out of it. They have lost so much talent, and they were able to replace some of it, but they are still a team full of holes. They will most likely have a very similar season as last season, but they still have potential of improvement and building towards the future.
2025 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
