2025 Florida Predictions on the HG

May 2

May 2 2025 Florida Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

The Florida Gators had a very rocky season in 2024, and Head Coach Billy Napier seemingly struggled to make decisions especially with who to start at QB. Napier did eventually make a final decision, and boy was it a good one. The Gators started freshman QB DJ Lagway, and they were able to go on a great run at the end of the season.

DJ Lagway, while splitting reps with Graham Mertz, was able to throw for 1,915 yards and 12 TDs. While the stats may not jump off the screen, Lagway was able to lead the Gators to notable victories over Ole Miss, LSU, and Florida State, and they also won their bowl game over Tulane. If DJ Lagway can come out hot, expect for the Florida Gators to look a lot more Dominant.

What’s not to like:

The main thing to not like about the Gators is that they did not hit the portal very hard, and they got smacked by the portal. The Gators lost 17 players to the portal, and while it might not have been their most impactful players leaving, a dominant team has to have depth at every position.

They still have young players who are ready to step up, but that is another thing that is scary for the Gators. Billy Napier started a lot of freshmen and sophomores this past season, and most of them had very solid seasons. However, there is still a lot of inexperience on that team, but that just means as the season goes on, they will continue to improve.

What does the Hourglass say?

Florida- SEC (8-4)

Power ranking 101.62. THE toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Florida Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #19- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Billy Napier- 63rd in Power 5 and 14th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 3 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Billy Napier is ranked as one of the lower tier coaches in the Power 5.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 51st

Defensive Ranking: 15th

Quarterback Play: Lagway- ranked 37th in the Power 4, 9th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 11.7 (Power 4 average- 14.41).

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Florida has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Gators at middle of the pack for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Florida ATS in 2024: 9-4

Florida at home: 4-3

Florida on the road: 3-1

Florida neutral site: 2-0

Final thoughts:

The Florida Gators are a team that is full potential. They have young players who have so much potential to be great, and if Head Coach Billy Napier can get these Gators moving in the right direction, they can fulfill that potential. The Gators are looking for a bounce back year, and they have the pieces to do so.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.