2024 Oklahoma Projections on the HG

Apr 10

Apr 10 2024 Oklahoma Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ben Parker Contributing

What’s to like:

Brent Venables had a rocky start at Oklahoma in 2022, but coached his team to 10 wins last year. Venables seems to be getting better and has landed some great recruits and made good staff hires.

Despite a tough season, the Sooners are still projected to win 9 games per the HG.

What’s not to like:

Is Jackson Arnold ready? In the Alamo Bowl Arnold threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw 3 interceptions. Outgoing quarterback Dillon Gabriel made a significant impact in Oklahoma’s 10-3 run last year and Arnold is going to have to improve significantly to match that performance.

Oklahoma will have their work cut out for them in their first season in the SEC. They have one of the toughest schedules in all of college football facing Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU in conference play.

Oklahoma has hired new coordinators on both offense and defense. While they made impressive gains last year, the Sooners are playing in a tougher conference with a new quarterback and new coordinators.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Oklahoma – SEC (9-3)

Four-year analytic percentage of = 84 percent

2024 Oklahoma Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 6th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Brent Venables - 39th in the country, 11th in SEC; 2024 coaching value= 6 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Venables ranks below the national average.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 9th

Defensive Rank: 11th

Quarterback Play: Jackson Arnold- ranked 5th in the Power 5, 13th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=7.63. Below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Oklahoma has a 2 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is lacking.

From Vegas:

Oklahoma ATS in 2023: 8-5-0

Oklahoma at home: 5-1-0

Oklahoma on the road: 2-3-0

Oklahoma at neutral site: 1-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

It’s all eyes on new quarterback Jackson Arnold in Norman as the Oklahoma Sooners prepare for their opening season in the SEC. Oklahoma had a solid 2023 run, but a lot has changed with this program since. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has transferred, offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has taken over as head coach at Mississippi State and defensive coordinator Jeff Roof has also left the program. Amid all these unanswered questions, we do know that this season will be tough. The SEC is not a conference that you can just show up and dominate in your first season.

With what we know right now, it does not seem like a playoff bid is in the cards for Oklahoma in 2024. With a league so rich in talent and heavy-hitters all around, there simply will not be enough room even in the expanded playoff format.

All things considered, Oklahoma fans should be more than happy if they reach their projected 9-3 record in the fall. That is not a bad run at all for their first season in the SEC.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.