2021 is the year of the Sooner - Oklahoma looks for first title since 2000 and we handicap the field
Jake Wimberly
It’s been 21 years since the Oklahoma Sooners won the National Championship in college football and a lot has changed since the year 2000. The iPhone wasn’t a thing the last time OU won a national title, neither was social media or Elon Musk - as we know him today.
Oklahoma has been close over the years, with various Heisman Trophy winners, several College Football Playoff appearances, but those have not always been kind.
The Sooners were dusted by Alabama in 2018, 45-34 in the semifinals and suffered the worse loss ever in the short history of the playoff, to the hands of LSU by the tune of 63-28.
There has also been heartbreak like in 2017 in a classic against Georgia at the Rose Bowl - a double overtime loss, 54-48.
The Sooners have been close - but it’s been major no cigar, with the BIG 12 left totally out in 2020 of the playoff.
Lincoln Riley took over for Bob Stoops in 2017 and has a remarkable record - going 45-8 over that span. Riley ranks third overall in our 2021 coaches rankings, only behind Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney.
The Sooners have the number one offense in our two year offensive scoring efficiency metric and have made major strides from 69th to 24th in our two year defensive scoring efficiency metric.
The Sooners looked to have finally figured it all out at the end of last year, playing better than anyone in the country and destroying Florida in their bowl game, 55-20.
Original College Football Hourglass article for 2021, the preview can be read here.
Spencer Rattler completed 68 percent of his passes, for just over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2020. He is the early favorite in Vegas for the Heisman Trophy.
On top of all that, the Sooners rank eighth on our three year talent metric and have arguably the best quarterback in college football in 2021 in Spencer Rattler. Rattler ranks number two on our list of power five quarterbacks this year, just slightly behind Sam Howell of North Carolina.
The Sooners also rank second only behind Ohio State in our Impact Ball Catcher Metric - our metric used to identify the teams with top end talent at wide receiver.
The Sooners check all the boxes and play a schedule that should bode well for Oklahoma this year.
That’s why we have pegged Oklahoma number one in the country and we project the Sooners to win their first National Title in 21 years.
It will not be easy, and there are some serious contenders as always, but the stars do look to be aligning for Lincoln Riley in year five of the program.
Projecting the New Years Day Six and the Playoff
After all the schedule cooking and number crunching the last three plus months, I have Oklahoma winning the National Title against the Georgia Bulldogs.
I also have Ohio State and Notre Dame back in the playoff, with Clemson and Alabama just on the outside looking in. In my New Years Six Day games, I have two Group of Five Teams punching tickets in Coastal Carolina and Cincinnati and a rebirth of sorts out west with USC.
LSU, Alabama and Texas A&M should all see New Year Six Day games and Clemson and Wisconsin should also punch tickets.
Let’s take a glance at the rest of the field.
Coming up in the next few days, records for all 129 teams and we start conference and team previews.
Ranking the Field
The Elites
#2 Georgia
Eye roll from the folks in the back, but that’s ok. Kirby Smart has a great roster and this time a quarterback in JT Daniels that will get the Dogs the SEC Championship and a number two spot in the playoff. If Kirby Smart can avoid the let down week one against Clemson or along the way, not lose a game against an inferior opponent, the Dogs should get back to the playoff - first time since 2017.
#3 Ohio State
The Buckeyes will be breaking in a new quarterback, but they return a ton of talent on the offensive side and should be salty on defense. Getting to the Championship last year was just the appetizer the Buckeyes needed - as wide receiver Chris Olave came back to school saying, “we have unfinished business".
# 4 Alabama
The Crimson Tide will be breaking in a ton of new talent and new coordinators - and most people will have the Tide number one in their preseason poll. And, you know what; I don’t blame them. It’s hard to bet against Nick Saban, but you have to ask how long can the Tide survive the massive flux of turnover before it bites them in the behind?
#5 Clemson
New quarterback in DJ Uiagalelei and a ton of talent is back for the Tigers. Clemson is still the king of the ACC, and if they can get over on Georgia in week one, it could be smooth sailing back to the playoff for Dabo Swinney. No program has been more consistent during the playoff era, more so than Clemson.
I would not be shocked to see Clemson or Alabama right back in the playoff come January.
#6 Notre Dame
Brian Kelly has done wonders for the Irish and with transfer quarterback Jack Coan coming on board for a year - don’t look for the Irish to stop punching those playoff tickets.
Yes people are tired of watching Notre Dame get thumped in the playoff, but this club is getting better and better every year and that’s a credit to Kelly and his staff.
The Irish do play a neutral site game against Wisconsin, and the annual against USC, but they are back as the true Independent that they are this year. If the Irish go 11-1, they are back in the playoff for the third straight year.
Outside, but not totally out
#7 USC
# 8 LSU
# 9 Texas A&M
The Rest:
10 Miami
11 Penn State
12 Wisconsin
13 Utah
14 Arizona State
15 Iowa State
16 North Carolina
17 Minnesota
18 Oregon
19 Florida
20 Boston College
21 Pittsburgh
22 Michigan
23 Iowa
24 West Virginia
25 Texas
All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
