Offensive and Defensive scoring efficiency along with recruiting is your CFB stock market meter for the College Football Playoff
We are full speed ahead in prediction mode in college football as everyone around the country is slinging out odds, predictions and telling you what will happen in the 2018 college football season.
Of course as always we are throwing out content left and right here on the Glass and will continue to do so like a well-oiled machine.
Everyone’s choices will vary to some degree on the College Football Playoff, a winner and champion as the season approaches. But, what if I told you there is a meter you can follow very closely to gauge who will probably be in the Big 4 and it is almost like a college football stock market. That market watch is twofold. Recruiting and team efficiency rankings.
Since 2014, when the College Football Playoff began, two things are for certain. If you do not rank inside our TWO categories in recruiting you don’t have a shot to be at the party. You either need to be inside our College Football Playoff bust line in recruiting or our championship winner bust line on talent. Of the sixteen teams that have played in the College Football Playoff, everyone met that criteria.
Here is the other criteria you can follow in season and it is who leads the country in offensive and defensive scoring efficiency.
Per ESPN.com, Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.
Since 2014, 82 percent of all College Football Playoff participants were in the top five in overall efficiency.
Let’s recap shall we to prove we have our very own college football stock market watch.
CFB Participants: Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State and Alabama
Florida State, Ohio State and Alabama all would have been inside our championship winner in recruiting and Oregon in our second tier of recruiters so that checks box one.
Secondly, when we go look at the OTE – overall team efficiencies, well it tells the story.
Oregon led the country in 2014 in overall efficiency, while Alabama and Ohio State were inside the top five. Florida State was the one outlier at 18th in OTE that year and if you remember they won several close games on the arm of Jamies Winston. TCU was the one team left out in 2014 after going 12-1 causing a stir in year one.
CFB Participants: Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan State
Again; Clemson, Alabama and Oklahoma check the box for elite recruiter status, while Michigan State was just inside our second tier of recruiters and won the BIG10 to get into the playoff.
Now when we look at the OTE we see again a similar pattern.
Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma were 1,2,3 in OTE but Michigan State was 21st in the country. They were able to upset the fifth best OTE team in Ohio State to get into the playoff and at number four, Ole Miss very well could have been in the playoff if not for an upset loss to Memphis and Arkansas.
Both Ole Miss and Ohio State checked the box in recruiting in 2015.
CFB Participants: Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama and Washington
Rinse and repeat - Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama all check elite recruiter boxes. Washington, like Michigan State fell in the second talent tier we have.
Now again to the CFB Stock meter known as OTE:
We have a home run in 2016 as all four check the box and fit into the top five. Michigan was the lone team left out in the cold in 2016, but would have been in if not for a one point loss to Iowa and a three point loss to Ohio State. Michigan also checked the recruiting box.
CFB Participants: Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson
This is getting easy isn't it. See college football isn't really hard to figure out at all; just some people make it that way.
All four teams are inside our elite recruiting status tier and well when we get to the OTE -
Three of the four check this box again and Oklahoma was at 6th this past year. Their defense brought them outside the top five. We know about Penn State too, and the chatter about them getting in or left out throughout the 2017 process. The Nittany Lions check the talent box and the OTE box, but just couldn't squeeze in.
Oh and for kicks - Central Florida was 11th in OTE this past year and way outside the recruiting tiers we establish for National Championship type teams, which again validates them getting left out of the big dance regardless of their record.
So what should you do you ask? Well first let's look at our tiers of recruiting one more time for 2018.
Now look carefully at the above list. If your team is not on this list, just enjoy football, cooking out and a drink; because your team doesn't have a prayer of getting to the College Football Playoff.
Now look at your team's quarterback situation. If you are in turmoil like LSU or Florida - cya latter, you just got asked to leave the island. Now lastly look at coaching and if you have someone like Larry Fedora or Clay Helton - bye bye.
That leaves you with a good idea of who left on this list to watch and watch the OTE's roll out weekly in college football. It's a true market watch and gauge as to who really has a shot at the College Football Playoff.