2019 Analytics are being shaped right now on recruiting trial
We are now only two weeks away from SEC Media Days and we will be kicking it off before you know it.
We've had our big projections out for months and we have a lot more coming your way with gaming now legal in the state of Mississippi and elsewhere, but we are always looking down the road and believe it or not, 2019 is already coming into shape as teams continue to land recruits and jockey for future players.
Just a reminder, we tier our talent in college football into three tiers. The first tier is the college football national championship talent line. This means you have enough talent on our three year metric to win the National Title.
Our 2018 championship talent cutoff line with those that can win are as follows. This means, if your team isn't listed here, the odds of them winning the National Title in 2018 are slim to damn near none.
Conversely, our 2018 College Football Playoff bust line is as follows. What this means is this group of teams have enough talent to get to the playoff, but not enough to win it. If your team isn't listed on either of these groups, a bowl is about all you can hope for and I don't care what publication lists your team as a "dark horse".
If we take the recruiting rankings via 247sports as of today, and I know this is fluid and will change, but the talent profile changes for next year have some interesting story lines developing. Some teams are looking extremely good, while others are in big trouble.
First let's look at how our College Football National Championship bust line would look if we were into the 2019 data sets.
Alabama is back on it's way to itching out Ohio State and Georgia for that top spot - all three only separated by percentage points.
Oklahoma is recruiting like a machine and could jump into the top four, while Ed Orgeron has LSU rolling and could send them back to the top five in talent.
Clemson, who is already a machine is itching closer to that top five talent profile; Texas A&M look to be making a move under first year head coach Jimbo Fisher and look at Oregon. Oregon is on the cusp of going from good to the elite recruiting catigory.
What about the second tier on our recruiting and talent matrix?
Mississippi State looks to be moving up the ladder from 25 to around 20, look for Nebraska and Virginia Tech to continue climb ever so slowly. Ole Miss is maintaining after the NCAA issues they had.
But, the biggest shock is Florida and Dan Mullen. They are on the cusp of falling from the elite in recruiting on our metric to the second tier. Still good enough to get to the playoff, but not to win it. Mullen and the Gators have been on a free fall lately and need to get things corrected from a talent standpoint - if not, it could get hot in Gainesville, FL. Mullen wasn't hired to be average.
We will continue to track the ever moving talent profiles of every team, because 2019 will hit us in the face before you know it.