2024 Michigan Football Projections on the HG

Feb 29

Feb 29 2024 Michigan Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ben Parker Contributing

What’s to like:

Michigan has a notoriously tough defense. Last year they ranked 1st nationally in defensive efficiency. If they keep a similar scheme in 2024, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. Michigan has hired Wink Martindale as its new defensive coordinator.

Michigan did not lose any expected starters in the 30-day transfer portal window following Jim Harbaugh’s exit.

What’s not to like:

College football legend Jim Harbaugh announced his resignation as Michigan’s head coach and is headed back to the NFL. The program will be going through a reset under new head coach Sherrone Moore. Moore coached the Wolverines to 4 victories in 2023 while Harbaugh was suspended, but still has a lot of work to do to prove himself as head coach. Moore ranks 49th nationally per the HG.

The Big Ten is expanding this year, adding in 4 teams. Most notably Oregon who will be a tough opponent.

The biggest question offensively is who will replace outgoing quarterback J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy led the Michigan offense to two winning seasons and a National Championship. Jayden Denegal will have his work cut out for him to follow up such electric performances by McCarthy.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Michigan – Big Ten (9-3)

Four-year analytic percentage of Michigan = 91 percent

2024 Michigan Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 12th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Sherrone Moore - 49th in the country, 16th in Big Ten; 2024 coaching value= 4 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Sherrone Moore ranks below the national average and is unproven.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 4th

Defensive Rank: 1st

Quarterback Play: Jayden Denegal- ranked 66th in the Power 5, 16th in the Big Ten; 2024 QB value=4.5. Below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Michigan has a 2 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is lacking.

From Vegas:

Michigan ATS in 2023: 9-5-1

Michigan at home: 2-4-1

Michigan on the road: 4-1-0

Michigan at neutral site: 3-0-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Michigan is coming off a historic 2023 season, but things will look quite different this upcoming season. Like 2024 Rose Bowl opponent Alabama, Michigan looks to pick up the pieces after losing their head coach. With the talent retained and elite coordinator hires, they should be able to put together a winning season.

Times are changing at Michigan, will they be able to produce the results they need to make the 12-team playoff?

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.