2021 Auburn football projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
What’s to like:
Auburn’s physicality - Tank Bigsby will be one of the best backs in the SEC this year, and this offense will go through Bigsby. For Auburn to win, they will need to grind out some games and Bigsby and others will carry the Tigers from the backfield.
Also LSU transfer quarterback TJ Finley should produce some competition in the quarterback room for Bo Nix.
What’s not to like:
Bo Nix’s inability to be consistent. First year head coach Brian Harsin will have a decision to make if Nix doesn’t come out the gate hot. Does he turn to Finley, or lean heavy on the run game all year long?
Auburn’s third down offense was awful a year ago, allowing teams to convert 50 percent of the time. The Tigers have to be better on third down on defense.
The Tigers also need to find more pass catchers to stretch the field for Harsin and his offense in year one.
What does the Hourglass Say?
2021 Auburn 6-6; 3-5 - in the SEC
Four-year analytic percentage on Auburn = 88 percent
2021 Auburn Analytics –
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): Auburn - 14th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff Championship bust line. Auburn does have the talent to make the College Football Playoff at this time and has a championship recruiting profile.
National Coaching Brian Harsin on HG Scale: 17th in the country (Brian Harsin 2021 coaching value set at (10) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. –Harsin is considered above average.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
Auburn ranks 20th in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 47th in the country and defensively 17th in the country.
Quarterback Play: Auburn has the 26th best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (9.4). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Auburn is right at our average mark on quarterback play in the country.
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Auburn ranks 47th in the country.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Auburn has recruited well over the years, but find themselves with some holes in 2021, like at wide receiver. Auburn also needs consistency along the offensive front in 2021. Auburn has a chance to be salty on defense and if the quarterback play can be consistent, this team could be in play for 8-9 wins.
However, a daunting schedule and several question marks looms for the Tigers, plus an improved SEC West field in Ole Miss, Miss. State and Arkansas, to go along with the usual suspects of Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M. A trip to Penn State and the annual game with Georgia - this could be one of those years on the Plains and Brian Harsin could have a rude awakening in year one in the SEC.
