Big 12 football primer on the CFBHG - 2020 conference analysis
Jake Wimberly
We continue on our journey towards the 2020 college football season and now we dive into the Big 12. We recently posted about the SEC and you can read that here.
We also have installments on the BIG 10, our college football win totals and more on the website - check it out and share with your friends.
The Big 12 - a tradition rich football conference, known for offense, not for defense and a conference that has only seen Oklahoma make the College Football Playoff during the playoffs short life.
The Big 12 at it’s current state, will never be mistaken for the SEC or the BIG 10, but it is still a good league and a league that needs other teams to step up on the national scene. While Oklahoma’s playoff appearances are earned and legitimate, the public wants to see another team and coach not named Lincoln Riley on the playoff board.
Baylor made a name for themselves last year and Texas is always “back”; Oklahoma State gets a lot of love annually and Iowa State and Kansas State, along with TCU gets mentioned when discussing the top players in the conference. But - until someone unseats the Sooners, make no mistake this is Oklahoma’s conference and Lincoln Riley and crew are not just giving the keys to the car away - you will have to come take them.
BIG 12 talent is top heavy; marginal throughout the conference:
Texas has officially taken over with the top roster in the Big 12 on our metric and while they are not heads and tails above Oklahoma, they are now ahead. The Longhorns boast the nations number two most talented roster, only behind Georgia now and this roster is ready made for Tom Herman to take Texas to the next step in 2020.
Oklahoma isn’t going anywhere though and the Sooners will have a say on what happens in this conference. After these two, its a significant drop off from number 3 through 10.
Most of the leagues teams are not separated by much on the analytics scale on talent - which is why you will see Iowa State or Oklahoma State snag an upset annually, or Kansas State or West Virginia throw a kink in your three game parlay on Saturday.
Typically quarterback play is amplified even more in this league - like Baylor with very good quarterback play last year making the run that they made. You have a gun slinger in this league - you’re going places.
3 Year Talent HG Composite
1 Texas 96.15
2 Oklahoma 92.82
3 TCU 77.95
4 Oklahoma State 70.51
5 West Virginia 69.49
6 Baylor 68.72
7 Iowa State 62.56
8 Kansas State 53.59
9 Kansas 52.56
10 Texas Tech 52.05
Dave Aranda comes into a great situation at Baylor in year one with Charlie Brewer at quarterback. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
Big 12 quarterbacks in 2020:
Lots of chatter around Spencer Rattler, the new Oklahoma quarterback and rightfully so. What Riley has done with quarterbacks is nothing short of amazing. If he can get Rattler to the podium of the Heisman ceremony this year, it will be like nothing we will have ever seen on quarterbacks from one school over a period of time.
We do have him back in the pack to start the year, because we use real data and what we can get our hands on - not what if’s and scenarios.
Sam Ehlinger of Texas is our number one Big 12 quarterback and he has earned it. Now it’s time for him to live up to the expectations set around his game in Austin.
Brock Purdy and Charlie Brewer and Kansas State’s Skylar Thompson headline a list of really good Big 12 quarterbacks. The big question is which one of the others is going to make that big jump to get their team in contention in 2020 for the conference title?
Lots of love coming out of Stillwater for Oklahoma Stat; can Spencer Sanders take Mike Gundy’s team to the next level?
Big 12 Quarterbacks
# Team Quarterback Metric
1 Texas Sam Ehlinger 29.2
2 Iowa State Brock Purdy 24.1
3 Baylor Charlie Brewer 20.2
4 Texas Tech Jett Duffey 15.8
5 Kansas State Skylar Thompson 12.4
6 Oklahoma Spencer Rattler 10
7 TCU Max Duggan 9.1
8 Oklahoma State Spencer Sanders 7.1
9 W. Virginia Austin Kendall 4
10 Kansas Thomas MacVittie 2.2
Big 12 coaches are as solid as they come:
Dave Aranda finally gets his shot as a head football coach in the Power Five, taking over the Baylor Program. It will be fun to see how his defensive mind may or may not change how defense is played in the Big 12.
Lincoln Riley has become quickly the class of the Big 12 and one has to wonder if the NFL comes calling sooner, rather than later.
Mike Gundy continues to be a stalwart of this leage and Gary Patterson needs a rebound at TCU to stay relevant in this league.
Les Miles is in year two at Kansas and you have to wonder what the Jayhawks ceiling is? Chris Kileman at Kansas State and Matt Campbell at Iowa State are two very promising, up and comers in the Power Five.
To call this a big year for Texas and Tom Herman is an understatement.
1 Oklahoma Lincoln Riley 31
2 Okla. State Mike Gundy 10
3 Texas Tom Herman 10
4 Kansas State Chris Klieman 5
5 TCU Gary Patterson 3
6 Baylor Dave Aranda 3
7 Kansas Les Miles 2
8 Iowa State Matt Campbell 2
9 W. Virginia Neal Brown -2
10 Tex. Tech Matt Wells -3
ODE gets to the meat of a team matter:
A lot of times in college football, we see teams who recruit well and then not perform so well. Sometimes that’s coaching, sometimes that is a miss in the talent evaluation process and some times that’s coaches and how each side of the ball performs as a unit.
Chuba Hubbard could be a Heisman finalist and a big reason Oklahoma State challenges for the Big 12 championship in 2020. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
Offensive and defensive scoring efficiency can tell you a lot about a program and what is going on with a team. Since the college football playoff - and even back into the BCS, we have seen teams that typically make these stages of college football live around or inside the top 10 in ODE (Offensive, Defensive Efficiency).
Some teams like Oklahoma are superior on offense, annually housing the nations top offense, but defensively they are exposed once on the national scene because their defensive unit is so bad. Is it talent? Probably not; Oklahoma annually recruits in the top ten. Is it coaching? Maybe on the defensive side. Is it culture or toughness? Possibly.
All are great questions on why some teams are good on one side and not so good on the other.
2020 ODE BIG 12 Rankings: NOTE: ODE Ranker is the national ranking of the team as a combined offensive and defensive number together. the O and D ranks are a teams offensive and defensive rankings over the last two years.
Team ODE Ranker O and D Ranks
Texas 17 13 and 36
Iowa State 22 36 and 26
Oklahoma 24 1 and 69
Oklahoma State 25 14 and 56
Baylor 28 26 and 50
West Virginia 39 48 and 44
TCU 46 89 and 15
Kansas State 48 61 and 48
Texas Tech 51 34 and 76
Kansas 108 100 and 92
Texas is the most complete team, when looking at offensive and defensive scoring efficiency numbers, but the Horns need a climb in both offense and defense to really be in play for the National Title.
TCU is one team that has played great defense, but their offense has been putrid over the last two years. The inverse can be said for Texas Tech - who even though they improved on the defensive side of the ball, there is still significant improvement to be made.
Les Miles and Kansas need a major leap on both sides of the ball to compete this year.
Scheduling matters and never apologize for scheduling help:
Strength of Schedule Numbers :
NOTE: Number to the right of each team is strictly a mathematical identifier that allows us to rank schedules, derived off 2020 opponents.
Strength of Schedule Numbers
1 West Virginia 993.05
2 TCU 971.18
3 Baylor 948.11
4 Iowa State 933.05
5 Kansas 927.79
6 Kansas State 906.41
7 Texas 900.94
8 Oklahoma 898.43
9 Texas Tech 895.52
10 Oklahoma State 886.1
Scheduling matters - who you play, when, where, who you play before a team and after. If schedules are any indicator, it will be a rough year for West Virginia and TCU, who needs a bounce back plays the second toughest schedule in the conference.
Oklahoma and Texas both play schedules that are very manageable for their programs and Oklahoma State has the type of schedule needed to help them make a run in the conference this year.
It’s still Texas and Oklahoma:
This will again be a fun league to watch, but it’s still about Oklahoma and Texas. Both teams should play each other twice this year and this time Texas has the team to not only win, but advance to the College Football Playoff. Anything shy of that and Tom Herman will be on the proverbial hot seat.
Below is how I have the Big 12 shaking out in 2020.
All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
